Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 14.487592 16.536041 18.732767 21.259247 24.080106 27.128015 30.665671
2025-08-31 11.299311 14.059431 17.242019 21.164887 25.850621 31.247602 37.912488
2025-09-07 9.721184 12.787213 16.490008 21.257107 27.193963 34.303506 43.416748
2025-09-14 8.732608 12.068203 16.264388 21.875683 29.120027 38.088445 49.952489
2025-09-21 7.652626 11.060585 15.508635 21.661858 29.862857 40.315656 54.527419
2025-09-28 6.505451 9.822460 14.309047 20.720878 29.529328 41.069101 57.166467
2025-10-05 6.062621 9.498567 14.287647 21.320162 31.226537 44.500964 63.409984
2025-10-12 5.629078 9.135769 14.164659 21.740614 32.665642 47.615338 69.326850
2025-10-19 5.093341 8.563482 13.683282 21.593940 33.267602 49.572472 73.701717
2025-10-26 4.608334 8.018559 13.190000 21.377045 33.727088 51.315135 77.809281
2025-11-02 4.241819 7.623397 12.885126 21.405881 34.523581 53.542078 82.660613
2025-11-09 3.944966 7.311904 12.680450 21.561870 35.498273 56.043827 87.979072
2025-11-16 3.621883 6.933751 12.350960 21.513759 36.177635 58.169278 92.884110
2025-11-23 3.305748 6.537918 11.961616 21.340044 36.644360 59.986979 97.396336
2025-11-30 3.078233 6.275072 11.767922 21.460744 37.562730 62.502247 103.023347
2025-12-07 2.956201 6.192178 11.871017 22.074414 39.293876 66.327258 110.782369
2025-12-14 2.710484 5.854329 11.504191 21.862425 39.652618 68.003739 115.249823
2025-12-21 2.378391 5.317473 10.741848 20.912575 38.723353 67.579874 116.375047
2025-12-28 2.297951 5.269294 10.860785 21.517152 40.441973 71.469659 124.487614
2026-01-04 2.198208 5.172387 10.880800 21.940851 41.862035 74.914791 131.987004
2026-01-11 2.033697 4.925334 10.598592 21.793046 42.272788 76.699871 136.829925
2026-01-18 1.874914 4.674706 10.290184 21.574376 42.540154 78.243618 141.311482
2026-01-25 1.757001 4.501500 10.120283 21.603453 43.245740 80.542658 147.111030